Dear Friend,
As you read this week's WeGetIt.org Wednesday Bulletin, please be thinking of friends who would benefit from it, and then forward it to them. Thanks for your support!
Hurricanes--Sure Sign of Manmade Global Warming?
The visits of hurricanes Gustav, Hanna, and soon Ike to the US mainland have some people claiming--as they did in 2004 and 2005--that manmade global warming is causing more and stronger hurricanes. But are the claims credible?
A lot of scientific research says no. Common sense also points out that although 2004 and 2005
were above-average hurricane years, 2006 and 2007 were below-average, which suggests the warming connection isn't strong.
Longer historical perspective helps, too. As Fred Singer and Dennis Avery point out in their groundbreaking book Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, long-term historical evidence indicates that there are more hurricanes in colder periods (like the Little Ice Age, about 1350-1850) than in warmer periods (like the Medieval Warm Period, about 900-1250).
On a practical level, wealthy nations tend to cope better with natural disasters, so it’s not surprising that the last four storms
killed only 14 people in the Dominican Republic but are being blamed for at least 689 deaths in neighboring Haiti. That’s why the WeGetIt.org campaign emphasizes the need to help the poor “fulfill their God-given potential as producers and stewards.”
What Will It Cost to Reduce Global Warming? And What Will It Achieve?
Assuming that manmade greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming, which is far from demonstrated, what would it cost to attempt to reduce that warming?
Lots of estimates have been made, but a recent one from the European Union is worth looking at, especially because the EU has been a major booster of efforts to curb manmade warming.
The Centre for European Policy Studies estimates, after assessing six major previous studies, that the global cost will run between US$328 and $876 billion per year. In the 42 years remaining to 2050, that would amount to between $13.8 and $36.8 trillion. What would it achieve? At most, about 0.2 degree F reduction in global average temperature--an undetectable statistical artifact that would have no significant effect on any species of life, including people.
Sensible policy making compares costs and benefits of alternatives. Consider just one. Guy Hutton, in Solutions for the World's Biggest Problems: Costs and Benefits (edited by Bjørn Lomborg), estimates that spending about $26.2 billion to improve water supply and sanitation in the developing world would save about 27.6 million Disability Adjusted Life Years (life years lost to disability and death because of contaminated water).
Which expenditure makes better sense?
What Does the Bible Say About Sea Level Rise?
One of the most feared results of global warming is sea level rise. Al Gore, in An Inconvenient Truth, forecast 20 feet or more in this century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecast perhaps 17 to 23 inches. The more expert Sea Level Commission of the International Union for Quaternary Research forecast 0 to 8 inches.
Does the Bible say anything about it? Consider these passages:
Genesis 9:11: "I establish My covenant with you; and all flesh shall never again be cut off by the water of the flood, neither shall there again be a flood to destroy the earth."
Psalm 104:5-9: "He established the earth upon its foundations, so that it will not totter forever and ever. You covered it with the deep as with a garment; the waters were standing above the mountains. At Your rebuke they fled, at the sound of Your thunder they hurried away. The mountains rose; the valleys sank down to the place which You established for them. You set a boundary that they may not pass over, So that they will not return to cover the earth."
Isaiah 54:9: "For this is like the days of Noah to Me, When I swore that the waters of Noah Would not flood the earth again . . . ."
Jeremiah 5:22: "'Do you not fear Me?' declares the LORD. 'Do you not tremble in My presence? For I have placed the sand as a boundary for the sea, An eternal decree, so it cannot cross over it. Though the waves toss, yet they cannot prevail; Though they roar, yet they cannot cross over it.'"
Now, please forward this message to your pastor, other Christian leaders, and friends and urge them to sign the declaration, too!
The more people sign, the stronger the message our leaders will hear that Biblical principles and factual evidence, not media hype about speculative fears like global warming, should guide our care for the environment and the poor.
Gratefully,
-- The WeGetIt.org campaign team
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